Launch Cost Trends: 14 Years Back vs. 14 Forward

The chart below plots every major launch cost data point from 2012–2026 alongside the projections from Citi GPS, Elon Musk, and our own fuel-economics analysis. Toggle between log and linear scale to see how dramatically the projection lines diverge from the historical trend.

Launch Cost to LEO $/kg

14 years of history vs. what Citi and Musk predict for the next 14

F9 List Price

Best Available (FH)

SpaceX Internal (est.)

Musk $10/kg

Citi Bull $33/kg

Citi Base $100/kg

Citi Bear $300/kg

Musk Target

$10/kg

"Marginal cost" — 100+ reuses

Requires 3x fuel markup. No transport industry has achieved this.

Citi Bull

$33/kg

100 reuses by 2040

89x from list price. Vehicle hasn't been reused once.

Citi Base

$100/kg

30–50 reuses, good cadence

29x drop needed — prior 14 yrs delivered 1.6x.

Citi Bear

$300/kg

~10 reuses (where F9 was in 2020)

Most grounded scenario. Still needs 10x from today.

Our Range

$150–400

Fuel economics + 15–25x markup

Sits between Citi bear & base. Consistent with physics.

The Musk Line Is Absurd On This Chart

On log scale, Musk's prediction creates a near-vertical cliff from 2026→2030 — an ~80x drop in 4 years — then flatlines at $10/kg forever. This is steeper than any cost curve in any transport industry in history.

Even Citi doesn't believe it. Their bull case ($33/kg) is 3.3x more expensive than Musk's target, and itself requires 100 reuses of a vehicle that hasn't been reused once.

The historical half tells the real story. The left side shows 14 years of the most revolutionary period in launch history — SpaceX inventing reusable rocketry — delivering roughly a 3x reduction in best available price. Every projection line requires the next 14 years to do dramatically more.

Sources: SpaceX published pricing, NASA NTRS (Jones 2018/2020), Citi GPS “Space: Dawn of a New Age” (May 2022), Musk statements (X/Twitter, Starship updates 2022–2024), Adilov et al. (Economics Bulletin 2022). All nominal USD.